The impact of social features on the financial sustainability of pension systems in Central and Eastern Europe and Baltic States
Abstract
This paper analyses the financial sustainability of pension systems from the perspectives of labour supply, population aging, and demographic changes. The time period chosen was 1995 to 2022 and it takes into account nine countries from Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic States. The econometric modelling techniques used are traditional linear regression, ridge and lasso regression, cross-validated glmnet models, and xboost flexible model used for the whole nine countries and also for country groups. The empirical results show that government expenditures and revenues in terms of social security funds are influenced by the demographic changes of the population that we face nowadays, are bound to the population aging phenomenon, and are dependent upon the elderly labour supply movements. The conclusions of this article reveal the practical need to reshape the financial sustainability of pension systems in all nine countries by developing a sustainable pension scheme that needs to be adjusted to the new social, demographic, and behavioural patterns of labour supply.
Keyword : pension systems, labour supply, elderly people, financial sustainability, aging society
How to Cite
Dumiter, F. C., Schebesch, K. B., Nicoară, Ștefania A., & Bențe, C. (2024). The impact of social features on the financial sustainability of pension systems in Central and Eastern Europe and Baltic States. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 30(6), 1920–1949. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2024.22835
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Aubry, J. P. (2022). Public pension investment update: Have alternatives helped or hurt? Issue in Brief, 22(20), 1–11.
Balteș, N., Dumiter, F., David, D., & Jimon, Ș. (2018). Trends regarding the evolution of the Romanian pension system. Studia Universitatis Vasile Goldiș Arad Seria Științe Economice, 28(1), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.2478/sues-2018-0001
Bayar, Y. (2013). Financial sustainability of pension systems in the European Union. European Research Studies, 16(3), 46–70. https://doi.org/10.35808/ersj/394
Boj, E., Claramunt, M. M., & Varea, X. (2022). Reverse mortgage and financial sustainability. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 28(4), 872–892. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2022.16617
Boj, E., Claramunt, M. M., & Varea, X. (2024). On which socioeconomic groups do reverse mortgages have the greatest impact? Evidence from Spain. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 30(4), 1146–1164. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2024.21138
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Castanheira, M., & Galasso, V. (2011). Which reforms for a fair and sustainable pension system? Reflects and Perspectives, L(3), 187–202. https://doi.org/10.3917/rpve.503.0187
Chlon-Dominczak, A. (2021). Towards sustainable and adequate pension systems: Old-age pension reforms after economic transition and EU accession in Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. In M. Landesmann, &I. P. Sekely (Eds.), Does EU membership facilitate convergence? The Experience of the EU’s Eastern Enlargement – Volume II. Studies in Economic Transition. Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-57702-5_12
Clements, B., Eich, F., & Gupta, S. (2014). Equitable and sustainable pensions. Challenges and perspectives. International Monetary Fund.
Costrell, R. M., & McGee, J. B. (2023). Toward an economic reformulation of public pension funding. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747223000173
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Dorofeev, M., & Tamashiro, K. (2018). Evolution of pension system financial models for sustainable economic growth. In H. Dincel, & S. Yuksel. (Eds.), Economic development and the environmental ecosystem (pp. 165–178). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-26596-9_14
Dumiter, F. C., Jimon, Ș. A., & Balteș, N. (2021). Macroeconomic impact of pension system upon private pension funds scheme. Empirical evidence from Central and Eastern European countries. Studia Universitatis Vasile Goldiș Arad Seria Științe Economice, 31(2), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.2478/sues-2021-0006
Dumiter, F. C., & Jimon, Ș. A. (2022). Public pension systems’ financial sustainability in Central and Eastern European Countries. In S. L. Fotea, I. Ș. Fotea, & S. Văduva (Eds.), Navigation through the crisis: Business, technological and ethical considerations. Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics. Springer Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-82751-9_7
Dumiter, F. C. (2023). The correlation between double taxation conventions, tax compliance, and tax evasion. Empirical evidence from OECD countries. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 29(3), 902–948. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18260
Dumiter, F. C., Nicoară, Ș. A., Boiță, M., Loucanova, E., Repkova Stofkova, K. (2023). Financial, economic, and social aspects of pension systems. Econometrical approaches in Central and Eastern Europe. Preprints.org. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202305.0262.v1
Fehr, H., & Frohlich, A. (2023). Optimal retirement with disability pensions. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 23(3), 335–364. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747223000227
Figuerola-Wischke, A., & Gil-Lafuente, A. M. (2024). Forecasting the real average retirement benefit in the United States using OWA operators. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 30(4), 956–975. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2024.20763
Fratoni, L., Levantesi, S., & Menzietti, M. (2022). Measuring financial sustainability and social adequacy of the Italian NDC pension system under the COVID-19 pandemic. Sustainability, 14, Article 16274. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142316274
Frassi, B., Gnecco, G., Pammolli, F., & Wen, X. (2019). Intragenerational redistribution in a funded pension system. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 18(2), 271–303. https://doi.org/10.1017/S147474721700049X
Gannon, F., Legros, F., & Touze, V. (2020). Sustainability of pension systems. Building a smooth automatic balance with an application to the US social security. Revue de l’OFCE, 170(6), 377–401. https://doi.org/10.3917/reof.170.0377
Garvey, A. M., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Melia, C. (2020). Does the pension system’s income statement really matter? A proposal for an NDC scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits. Economic Research, 34(1), 392–310. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2020.1782246
Gomez-Deniz, E., Perez-Rodriguez, J., & Sosvilla-Rivero, S. (2022). Analyzing how the social security reserve fund in Spain affects the sustainability of the pension system. Risks, 10(120), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10060120
Gutierrez, R., Lopez-Rodriquez, F., & Tejero, A. (2023). Interests and values: Changes in satisfaction with public pensions and healthcare in Spain before and after the great recession. Revista Espanola de Investigationes Sociologicas, 181(January–March), 41–60.
Hammond, P. B., Maurer, R., & Mitchell, O. S. (2023). Pension funds and sustainable investment. Challenges and opportunities. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780192889195.001.0001
Hoang, T., & Maher, C. S. (2022). Fiscal condition, institutional constraints, and public pension contribution: Are pension contribution shortfalls fiscal illusion? Public Budget & Finance, 42, 93–124. https://doi.org/10.1111/pbaf.12328
Huang, F., Maller, R., & Ning, X. (2020). Modelling life tables with advances ages: An extreme value theory approach. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 93, 95–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.04.004
Innocenti, S., Clark, G., & McGill, S. (2024). Experience of financial challenges, retirements concerns, and planning: Evidence from representative samples of workers in 16 countries. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 23(2), 183–201. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747223000082
Jimon, Ș. A., Dumiter, F. C., & Balteș, N. (2021). Financial sustainability of pension systems. Empirical evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries. Springer Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-74454-0
Jimon, Ș. A., Balteș, N., & Dumiter, F. C. (2020). Empirical approaches upon pension systems in Central and Eastern European countries. Triangle assessment: Free movement of people, labor market and population health features. Studia Universitatis Vasile Goldiș Arad Seria Științe Economice, 30(1), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.2478/sues-2020-0001
Kabasinskas, A., Sutiene, K., Kopa, M., & Valakevicius, E. (2017). The risk-return profile of Lithuanian private pension funds. Economic Research, 30(1), 1611–1630. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2017.1383169
Kanabar, R., & Kalwij, A. (2023). State pension eligibility age and retirement behaviour. Evidence from the United Kingdom household longitudinal study (Netspar Academic Series DP 0/10/2023-001). Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Essex. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4065459
Krpan, M., Pavkovic, A., & Kedzo, M. G. (2022). Sustainability assessments of pension systems of new member states using data envelopment analysis with sensitivity results. Economic Research, 35(1), 6648–6666. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2052335
Kulinskaya, E., Gitsels, L. A., Bakbergenuly, I., & Wright, N. R. (2020). Calculation of changes in life expectancy based on proportional hazards model of intervention. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 93, 27–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.04.006
Nomura, A. (2023). Sustainability of pension systems and the role of private pensions. Policy Review, 19(3), 1–36.
Nullmeier, F., De Reufels, D. G., & Obinger, H. (2022). International impacts on social policy. Short histories in global perspectives. Global Dynamics of Social Policy (GDSP). Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86645-7
Orban, G., & Palotai, D. (2005). The sustainability of the Hungarian pension system: A reassessment (Occasional Paper, 40). Magyar Nemzeti Bank.
Ramaswamy, S. (2012). The sustainability of pension schemes (BIS Working Paper No. 368). Bank for International Settlements. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1980094
Romp, W., & Beetsma, R. (2020). Sustainability of pension systems with voluntary participation. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 93, 125–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.04.009
Romp, W., & Beetsma, R. (2023). OECD pension reform: The role of demographic trends and the business cycle. European Journal of Political Economy, 77, Article 102280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102280
Safaralievich, M. B. (2022). Efficiency of pension systems. International Journal of Business Diplomacy and Economy, 1(5), 34–40.
Sanchez-Romero, M., Schuster, P., & Prskawetz, A. (2024). Redistributive effects of pension reforms: Who are the winners and losers? Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 23(2), 294–320. https://doi.org/10.1017/S147474722300015X
Sole, M., Souto, G., & Patxot, C. (2019). Sustainability and adequacy of the Spanish pension system after the 2013 reform: A microsimulation analysis. Review of Public Economics, 228(1), 109–150. https://doi.org/10.7866/HPE-RPE.19.1.5
Sorsa, V. P., & Van der Zwan, N. (2022). Sustaining the unsustainable? The political sustainability of pensions in Finland and the Netherlands. Journal of European Social Policy, 32(1), 91–104. https://doi.org/10.1177/09589287211035691
Stanovnik, T., Bejakovic, P., & Chlon-Dominczak, A. (2015). The collection of pension contributions: A comparative review of three Central and European countries. Economic Research, 28(1), 1149–1161. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2015.1100836
Tomassetti, P. (2023). Between stakeholders and shareholders: Pension funds and labour solidarity in the age of sustainability. European Labour Law Journal, 14(1), 73–91. https://doi.org/10.1177/20319525221140422
Verbic, M., & Spruk, R. (2014). Aging population and public pensions: Theory and macroeconomic evidence. Panoeconomicus, 3, 289–316. https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN1403289V
Wolf, I. (2021). The binary path of risks in pension systems and political pressure. World Review of Political Economy, 12(2), 255–275. https://doi.org/10.13169/worlrevipoliecon.12.2.0255
Zhao, Q., & Mi, H. (2019). Evaluation on the sustainability of urban public pension system in China. Sustainability, 11, Article 1418. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11051418
Al-Hassan, H., & Devolder, P. (2022). Stochastic modellization of hybrid public pension plans (PAYG) under demographic risks with application to the Belgian Case (LIDAM Discussion paper ISBA 2022/42). Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences.
Amaglobeli, D., Chai, H., Dabla-Norris, E., Dybczak, K., Soto, M., & Tieman, A. F. (2019). The future of saving: The role of pension system design in an aging world (SDN/19/01). International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484388990.006
Aubry, J. P. (2022). Public pension investment update: Have alternatives helped or hurt? Issue in Brief, 22(20), 1–11.
Balteș, N., Dumiter, F., David, D., & Jimon, Ș. (2018). Trends regarding the evolution of the Romanian pension system. Studia Universitatis Vasile Goldiș Arad Seria Științe Economice, 28(1), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.2478/sues-2018-0001
Bayar, Y. (2013). Financial sustainability of pension systems in the European Union. European Research Studies, 16(3), 46–70. https://doi.org/10.35808/ersj/394
Boj, E., Claramunt, M. M., & Varea, X. (2022). Reverse mortgage and financial sustainability. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 28(4), 872–892. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2022.16617
Boj, E., Claramunt, M. M., & Varea, X. (2024). On which socioeconomic groups do reverse mortgages have the greatest impact? Evidence from Spain. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 30(4), 1146–1164. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2024.21138
Brunello, G., De Paola, M., & Rocco, L. (2023). Pension reforms, longer working horizons and absence from work (IZA Institute of Labor Economics DP. No. 15871). SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4638792
Bravo, J. M., Ayuso, M., Holzmann, R., & Palmer, E. (2021). Addressing the life expectancy gap in pension policy. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 99, 200–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2021.03.025
Castanheira, M., & Galasso, V. (2011). Which reforms for a fair and sustainable pension system? Reflects and Perspectives, L(3), 187–202. https://doi.org/10.3917/rpve.503.0187
Chlon-Dominczak, A. (2021). Towards sustainable and adequate pension systems: Old-age pension reforms after economic transition and EU accession in Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. In M. Landesmann, &I. P. Sekely (Eds.), Does EU membership facilitate convergence? The Experience of the EU’s Eastern Enlargement – Volume II. Studies in Economic Transition. Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-57702-5_12
Clements, B., Eich, F., & Gupta, S. (2014). Equitable and sustainable pensions. Challenges and perspectives. International Monetary Fund.
Costrell, R. M., & McGee, J. B. (2023). Toward an economic reformulation of public pension funding. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747223000173
Danan, G., & Dupre, M. E. (2021). Encyclopedia of Gerontology and Population Aging. Springer Cham.
Dorofeev, M., & Tamashiro, K. (2018). Evolution of pension system financial models for sustainable economic growth. In H. Dincel, & S. Yuksel. (Eds.), Economic development and the environmental ecosystem (pp. 165–178). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-26596-9_14
Dumiter, F. C., Jimon, Ș. A., & Balteș, N. (2021). Macroeconomic impact of pension system upon private pension funds scheme. Empirical evidence from Central and Eastern European countries. Studia Universitatis Vasile Goldiș Arad Seria Științe Economice, 31(2), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.2478/sues-2021-0006
Dumiter, F. C., & Jimon, Ș. A. (2022). Public pension systems’ financial sustainability in Central and Eastern European Countries. In S. L. Fotea, I. Ș. Fotea, & S. Văduva (Eds.), Navigation through the crisis: Business, technological and ethical considerations. Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics. Springer Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-82751-9_7
Dumiter, F. C. (2023). The correlation between double taxation conventions, tax compliance, and tax evasion. Empirical evidence from OECD countries. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 29(3), 902–948. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18260
Dumiter, F. C., Nicoară, Ș. A., Boiță, M., Loucanova, E., Repkova Stofkova, K. (2023). Financial, economic, and social aspects of pension systems. Econometrical approaches in Central and Eastern Europe. Preprints.org. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202305.0262.v1
Fehr, H., & Frohlich, A. (2023). Optimal retirement with disability pensions. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 23(3), 335–364. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747223000227
Figuerola-Wischke, A., & Gil-Lafuente, A. M. (2024). Forecasting the real average retirement benefit in the United States using OWA operators. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 30(4), 956–975. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2024.20763
Fratoni, L., Levantesi, S., & Menzietti, M. (2022). Measuring financial sustainability and social adequacy of the Italian NDC pension system under the COVID-19 pandemic. Sustainability, 14, Article 16274. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142316274
Frassi, B., Gnecco, G., Pammolli, F., & Wen, X. (2019). Intragenerational redistribution in a funded pension system. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 18(2), 271–303. https://doi.org/10.1017/S147474721700049X
Gannon, F., Legros, F., & Touze, V. (2020). Sustainability of pension systems. Building a smooth automatic balance with an application to the US social security. Revue de l’OFCE, 170(6), 377–401. https://doi.org/10.3917/reof.170.0377
Garvey, A. M., Ventura-Marco, M., & Vidal-Melia, C. (2020). Does the pension system’s income statement really matter? A proposal for an NDC scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits. Economic Research, 34(1), 392–310. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2020.1782246
Gomez-Deniz, E., Perez-Rodriguez, J., & Sosvilla-Rivero, S. (2022). Analyzing how the social security reserve fund in Spain affects the sustainability of the pension system. Risks, 10(120), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10060120
Gutierrez, R., Lopez-Rodriquez, F., & Tejero, A. (2023). Interests and values: Changes in satisfaction with public pensions and healthcare in Spain before and after the great recession. Revista Espanola de Investigationes Sociologicas, 181(January–March), 41–60.
Hammond, P. B., Maurer, R., & Mitchell, O. S. (2023). Pension funds and sustainable investment. Challenges and opportunities. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780192889195.001.0001
Hoang, T., & Maher, C. S. (2022). Fiscal condition, institutional constraints, and public pension contribution: Are pension contribution shortfalls fiscal illusion? Public Budget & Finance, 42, 93–124. https://doi.org/10.1111/pbaf.12328
Huang, F., Maller, R., & Ning, X. (2020). Modelling life tables with advances ages: An extreme value theory approach. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 93, 95–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.04.004
Innocenti, S., Clark, G., & McGill, S. (2024). Experience of financial challenges, retirements concerns, and planning: Evidence from representative samples of workers in 16 countries. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 23(2), 183–201. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747223000082
Jimon, Ș. A., Dumiter, F. C., & Balteș, N. (2021). Financial sustainability of pension systems. Empirical evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries. Springer Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-74454-0
Jimon, Ș. A., Balteș, N., & Dumiter, F. C. (2020). Empirical approaches upon pension systems in Central and Eastern European countries. Triangle assessment: Free movement of people, labor market and population health features. Studia Universitatis Vasile Goldiș Arad Seria Științe Economice, 30(1), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.2478/sues-2020-0001
Kabasinskas, A., Sutiene, K., Kopa, M., & Valakevicius, E. (2017). The risk-return profile of Lithuanian private pension funds. Economic Research, 30(1), 1611–1630. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2017.1383169
Kanabar, R., & Kalwij, A. (2023). State pension eligibility age and retirement behaviour. Evidence from the United Kingdom household longitudinal study (Netspar Academic Series DP 0/10/2023-001). Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Essex. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4065459
Krpan, M., Pavkovic, A., & Kedzo, M. G. (2022). Sustainability assessments of pension systems of new member states using data envelopment analysis with sensitivity results. Economic Research, 35(1), 6648–6666. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2052335
Kulinskaya, E., Gitsels, L. A., Bakbergenuly, I., & Wright, N. R. (2020). Calculation of changes in life expectancy based on proportional hazards model of intervention. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 93, 27–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.04.006
Nomura, A. (2023). Sustainability of pension systems and the role of private pensions. Policy Review, 19(3), 1–36.
Nullmeier, F., De Reufels, D. G., & Obinger, H. (2022). International impacts on social policy. Short histories in global perspectives. Global Dynamics of Social Policy (GDSP). Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86645-7
Orban, G., & Palotai, D. (2005). The sustainability of the Hungarian pension system: A reassessment (Occasional Paper, 40). Magyar Nemzeti Bank.
Ramaswamy, S. (2012). The sustainability of pension schemes (BIS Working Paper No. 368). Bank for International Settlements. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1980094
Romp, W., & Beetsma, R. (2020). Sustainability of pension systems with voluntary participation. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 93, 125–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.04.009
Romp, W., & Beetsma, R. (2023). OECD pension reform: The role of demographic trends and the business cycle. European Journal of Political Economy, 77, Article 102280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102280
Safaralievich, M. B. (2022). Efficiency of pension systems. International Journal of Business Diplomacy and Economy, 1(5), 34–40.
Sanchez-Romero, M., Schuster, P., & Prskawetz, A. (2024). Redistributive effects of pension reforms: Who are the winners and losers? Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 23(2), 294–320. https://doi.org/10.1017/S147474722300015X
Sole, M., Souto, G., & Patxot, C. (2019). Sustainability and adequacy of the Spanish pension system after the 2013 reform: A microsimulation analysis. Review of Public Economics, 228(1), 109–150. https://doi.org/10.7866/HPE-RPE.19.1.5
Sorsa, V. P., & Van der Zwan, N. (2022). Sustaining the unsustainable? The political sustainability of pensions in Finland and the Netherlands. Journal of European Social Policy, 32(1), 91–104. https://doi.org/10.1177/09589287211035691
Stanovnik, T., Bejakovic, P., & Chlon-Dominczak, A. (2015). The collection of pension contributions: A comparative review of three Central and European countries. Economic Research, 28(1), 1149–1161. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2015.1100836
Tomassetti, P. (2023). Between stakeholders and shareholders: Pension funds and labour solidarity in the age of sustainability. European Labour Law Journal, 14(1), 73–91. https://doi.org/10.1177/20319525221140422
Verbic, M., & Spruk, R. (2014). Aging population and public pensions: Theory and macroeconomic evidence. Panoeconomicus, 3, 289–316. https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN1403289V
Wolf, I. (2021). The binary path of risks in pension systems and political pressure. World Review of Political Economy, 12(2), 255–275. https://doi.org/10.13169/worlrevipoliecon.12.2.0255
Zhao, Q., & Mi, H. (2019). Evaluation on the sustainability of urban public pension system in China. Sustainability, 11, Article 1418. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11051418